Reading | Long -term rule by billionaires, where will the Indian economy go?

"New Gold Plating Age"Kolkata Wealth Management

[British] James Clabetry

New Classic | Publishing of Nanhai Publishing Company

Forty years ago, India began to reform economic liberalization in the wind and rain, and now it has become a new economy that is still strong under the major trend of the world.

Today, India has the world’s largest and young population, developed technology, increasingly large middle -class consumer groups, and optimistic ambitions that expand day by day., The descendant of ordinary people cannot change poverty and hopeless life.The symbiosis of politics and commerce has contributed to India’s economic miracles. It was once corrupted as the development of lubricants, but now it has eroded the rusty national machines and everyone’s lives.

As a senior financial journalist and policy analyst, James Clarbutry has been serving as the president of the Financial Times in the Mencius Branch for 5 years.To the large -scale political rally of the dusty villages, the society is fully presented in all aspects of a split society where the transitional routine is transformed, and its future significance to the entire world.

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This book mainly discusses the three key issues of the modern history of India. The first is the rise of super rich, as well as the following problems of social inequality and excessive power of large companies.India has a long -term differential society, and people are divided into different classes according to the surnames, races and religions.Before independence, India was ruled by British colonists and many princes.During the decades after independence in 1947, Indian society became at least more equal at the economic level, and the elite class lived a moderate life at the standard of Western industrialized countries.

Since 2000, the situation has changed rapidly, and wealth has taken the lead in the elite class that has been educated and has closely linked with the world.A new wealthy class appears in the metropolis -the words of Economist Jean Draz and Amartia Mori — just like "Africa south of Sahara suddenly emerged several California."The most dazzling is the wealth accumulated in the top level of society.By 2008, India’s emerging billionaire richest man was amazing. Later, the economist Lagramima Lazan, an economist of the President of the Indian Bank of India, raised such a question: "If we can call Russia for oligopoly politics, then India leaves this day away from this day.How far is it? "

But we need to be clear that India is still a poor country with an annual annual income of less than $ 2,000.A survey by Investment Bank Switzerland in 2016 shows that if a person wants to be the richest 1%of India, it only costs $ 32,892.But it is these 1%of people occupying more than half of India’s national wealth, and such an amazing proportion is rare globally.A report from the International Monetary Fund states that India is currently one of the largest gaps between the rich and the poor in major Asian economies.French economist Thomas Picatti, who is famous for studying the inequality of world wealth, stated in the study that since the tax record in 1922, the top 1%of the high -income group in Indian national income distribution structure has beenReaching the peak.

The rise of super rich is closely linked to the second issue, that is, skirt capitalism, which means that politicians and businessmen are angry, and occupy valuable public resources as their own.The government -led planning economy in India has provided soil for corruption, forcing people and businessmen to pay a lot of money for the most basic public services.In the first ten years of the 21st century, the economy took the economy, and corruption was more serious. Compared with the corruption of the planned economy, it seemed insignificant.Telecom, minerals and other fields are given billions of scarce resources and are presented to super rich, and the media even concentrated these scandals as "fraud season".Enterprises use high rebates to get land, bypass environmental protection regulations, and sign infrastructure construction contracts.The rise in prices has promoted the prosperity of the mining industry such as iron ore, and at the same time caused rampant corruption.News headlines are full of scandals, public housing that exposes fraud, and reprimanded inferior road construction.

In 1991, India’s pioneers believed that the free market economy may bring a better and cheerful government.To put it briefly, their views are too optimistic.The actual situation is very large with their expectations, and the rusty national machines in India cannot properly respond to the high -speed growth and globalization of the economy.Administrative officials, judges, and regulators are in a state of overloading. Even if they are clean, they are too late to set up supporting regulations for the market. Besides, there are many corrupt officials in reality, and many are still greedy.The skirt capitalism penetrates all aspects of citizen life.Mining rights, land allocation, and public food allocation have caused vibration in society.The media was also involved in the scandal of being bought by capital, and the favorite national sports crickets failed to escape the fate of being polluted by skirt capitalism.A survey estimated that this large scam took away "hundreds of billions of dollars".If corruption in the planned economy is retail, then this period is wholesale.

Many government officials have gathered amazing wealth. If they were not hidden in shell companies or foreign banks, they could have won a place on the Forbes Rich List.For officials, high -speed economic growth means that the power in their hands can be exchanged for more wealth.Politics spent more money to win elections. In other words, they need to raise more funds to win voters who have won elections and feedback to make them elected.The big head comes from the illegal donation of the super rich in exchange for the unknown benefits of the party’s victory.Politics is no longer a cheap thing in India.The 2014 Indian election is said to cost nearly $ 5 billion.At that time, the Hindu Nationalist Party faced the Indian People’s Party easily, and Narndera Modi was elected Prime Minister.One of the reason why he won the support of the general public is that he grasped the people’s resentment of corruption and promised to promote economic reform after being elected and strong anti -corruption.

The third problem is the cycle of the Indian industrial economy from prosperity to depression, which is the result of the first two problems.In the past 20 years, India has set off the biggest infrastructure boom in history, and most of them have been invested and built by state -owned enterprises.Unlike India, India’s investment boom is mainly driven by private capital.Bollywood oligarchs loans a lot from local banks and invest in.The last time folk capital was so active, it was still a period of time when the United States was built in the United States.However, since the global financial crisis, India has gradually entered the depression.The super rich has to pay for the previous self -ownership, undertaking the bitter fruit brought by the company’s blind expansion and debt platform.In 2017, 10 years after the financial crisis, the non -performing assets on the accounts of major banks in India reached $ 150 billion.

From prosperity to depression, this economic cycle is not uncommon in emerging economies.The outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was related to the abuse of low interest rate loans and speculative investment in Malaysia and Thailand.The crisis in India is closer to the world.The 20 -year super globalization finally drowned the financial system of Britain and the United States, and was severely damaged in New York and London’s banks and insurance companies.Globalization is flooded in India. The industrial system, as an enterprise group of industrialization, is all deeply trapped in the quagmire.The financial family in London and New York swept the ground. Mumbai and New Delhi who were once regarded as legendary super rich also fell into the altar, and it has not fully recovered.

My interest in super rich, skirt capitalism, and the dilemma of Indian industry are related to my experience as a journalist abroad. At that time, I had the opportunity to observe these three issues closely.While traveling around India, I was most interested in the founders of India, which rose around 2005.They have been in the political and business circles, but they have begun to cope with with the turn of the situation, especially since Modi came to power in 2014, the direction of the tide has changed significantly.These people have always accepted the current situation of India, because it is adapt to time, instead of imagining according to personal preferences.They dare to think and do nothing.In this ambition, Western countries have used in the past, but now I am afraid it is impossible, because Western capitalism has been purified.Even people’s names to India -nobles, bosses, wealthy, tycoon, Titan, giants -it seems to be salvaged from another era.

If you feel that this sounds familiar, it is right, because before India, there have been a long time when the country has experienced the romantic development of skirt capitalism, and a foundation change has occurred.In the mid -19th century, the industrial revolution in the UK was so.However, what is more similar is the gold -plated era in the United States, that is, during the period of the 19th and 20th century after the end of 1865, in the words of a historian, it was "huge company, cold -blooded chaebol, cunning politician"The era.

In the middle of the 19th century, the United States was advertised as a pure land with a strong rural atmosphere and equal.However, in just the work of the two generations, the United States has undergone tremendous changes, the market is ups and downs, and it has undergone prosperity and depression.During that time, it was still the pinnacle of the US economic growth.Industrial centers such as Chicago and Pittsburgh have attracted millions of foreigners and millions of European immigrants.The isolated agricultural country has become a huge economy and an industrial power that leads the world.Hyderabad Stocks

The US economy has spawned a new generation of super rich as India.Petroleum Tycoon John Rockefeller, banker John Pilcht Morgan, railway tycoon Jei Gurd and Cornelis Van Detbelt.And the luxurious lifestyle.At that time, people were used to call them "robbers nobles" because they earned amazing wealth in a short time and often violated conscience.

The "gold -plated era" is derived from Mark Twain’s novels, which means that the times are as bright as plating, but the inside is already decayed.The politics of this era is particularly decaying.As early as the beginning of the 19th century, the franchise of the blind expansion provided the soil for corruption, and then formed a mad party to divide the stolen system.Powerful urban political machinery uses good fees and shelter networks for official positions and votes. The most famous of which is the New York Association of US Financial Capital in most of the 19th century.

India is likely to take the old road in the United States.Many Indians were furious when they heard this analogy, and believed that the unique and profound Indian civilization would be extremely offensive.They refuted that the United States in the 19th century was a young country with a scarce population, a typical small government and a large market. India has a long history, dense population, and government power.Even so, I still think this is very inspiring, especially after the Indian version of the robber nobles and the Tanmuni association -style politicians have more understanding.India’s economy is amazingly similar to the US economy at that time.In 2013, the per capita GDP after the adjustment of Indian life costs was $ 5,200, and the United States, which was at the peak of the gold -plated era in 1881.In any case, India’s economic and political strength is destined to continue to grow in the 21st century, just like the United States in the 19th century.In the final analysis, it is our optimistic expectation.For countries like India, we can always imagine new possibilities.

"They are full of people who don’t care," Fitzjerad wrote in "The Great Gatsby", "they smashed things, destroyed people, and then retreated to their own money, retreating to numbness, recklessness, and recklessness,The carelessness, no matter what makes them maintain, let others clean up their mess.I have also seen such people in India, but I will try to avoid moral preaching as much as possible, and tells the story of a country in a critical period of great change.India can indeed glimpse a beautiful future, but this future is far from being on the board.

Text: James Clabetry Editor: Kim Jiuchao Editor: Zhu Zifen

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